Where Do We Go From Here?

What a pickle we are in!

 Pax Americanus is dead.. America, the superpower victor of WWII, faced down Russian aspirations for hegemony. China’s communist power was still struggling to digest its gains. Japan was under American tutelage. The European Union was created to end all wars on that continent. The UN was still coming into being. America was the world’s peacekeeper and was ready to spend blood and treasure to work its will.

Today, we have China flexing its muscles, buying stakes and influencing in dozens of countries around the world. It is aggressively seeking to advance its territorial influence. The UK is a spent force instead of an imperial power. The EU continues to fray at the edges, fearful of a resurgent, mischief-making Russia, and buying in to Chinese bribery. Iran has arisen as a world-wide trouble-maker being encouraged by the Russians and the Chinese.

America is threatened by a historic disunity and dysfunction in its institutions, exacerbated by a disgruntled Trump who has recast the Republican Party in his own image. He is yet to be discarded into the ashcan of history, but his legacy will disrupt U.S. politics for years. What is clear, however, is that America will be busy with its own troubles for a while. It will have little in the way of resources for managing the world. The trouble makers will have free reign.

My particular focus, being Jewish, is Israel, in particular, and the Jewish people in general. I may lose most of my readers at this point. However, our troubles, small potatoes as they may seem, are indicative of a wider problem for all the small and medium-sized countries in the world. In spite of all the propaganda you may have swallowed, Israel is the only stabilizing force in an area of the world that has often been volatile. It is purely seeking only the safety of its inhabitants. But it is, nevertheless, in the forefront of those playing a positive role in combating negative forces at play in the world.

It has no designs on the possessions of others. It is what it is only because of the defensive action that has been forced on it by those seeking to destroy it. Those persisting in their attacks do not appreciate they are working only for their own defeat. Review history to appreciate the truth.

It is no accident that some Arab countries are warming up to Israel. In some ways, Israel is performing the role once carried out by the U.S. Recent agreements between Israel and neighboring countries has lowered temperatures. Some countries see Israel as an ally that can assure economic progress and their own safety against subversion.

Iran’ machinations are plain for all to see. Iran  seeks to extend its own power over countries in the Middle East through its network of proxies. Troublemaking by Iran, is encouraging terrorist activity in Israel, Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and in the Sinai. Sunni Arab countries fear Shiite Iran’s subversion in their domains. Its drive to achieve nuclear weapons is a threat not just against Israel.

America is no longer there to do the right thing. The U.N. has become a dead letter. Its commitment to ensure southern Lebanon will be free of terrorism against Israel has not been honored, in spite of the U.N. stationing troops in the territory.

Nations are, and will be, casting about for alliances in a world where the bad actors feel much freer to pursue acquisitive aims. Russia’s attack on Ukraine is just the beginning. We see bad actors flourishing in Africa, Asia, and South America. There will be others who will try their luck. The American policeman is no longer on duty. Israel and the Ukraine’s lackluster support from America and other “friends”, speaks volumes.

 The role recently played by Donald Trump in undermining American democracy has weakened that country as a factor in world affairs. But Obama and Biden have been a party to the projection of American weakness in world affairs. What the future holds for all of us, in this respect, no matter where we live, is a matter of serious concern.

We are so hungry for positive leadership after seeing too much of the other kind. Disunity in the world is not being helped by the current mood that has turned against international trade. Nations are no longer prepared to be dependent on foreign countries for crucial supplies of manufactured and raw materials. They are now more willing to spend more to ensure that crucial supplies are available from allies or within their own borders.             

Nations around the world are circling their wagons. We will see groupings of a similar nature coming into being in the next few years. NATO is being rejuvenated to face Russia and others like it. Turkey is a member of that organization, but is more likely to prove to be an enemy rather than a friend. Cyprus, as well, is experiencing aggression from Turkey as we speak.

In the same way we will likely see organizations arise in Asia to temper the ambitions of a resurgent China. Like Russia, it is facing demographic decline. It is more populous now than it will be in the future. Both these nations may feel that time is not on their side, and that they must act sooner rather than later to achieve their territorial ambitions.

At the same time we will have to be guarding against enemies from within. “Progressive” movements seem to foster efforts aimed against international solidarity against the enemies of our societies. These forces may in fact be subversive efforts by our enemies. We have seen how the streets of western nations were filled by supporters of Hamas genocidal ambitions relative to Israel fostered by Iran and other Islamic hegemonists. Such forces could have been the product of billions in investment by middle-eastern interests aimed at efforts by western nations to even defend themselves.

We can expect continuing efforts by Iran, Russia and China to counter efforts by other nations to create compatible groupings, both social and economic, in this world where there is no longer a “pax Americanus”.

The performance of Israel, surrounded by enemies, with only lackluster support from its allies, has astounded both its “friends” and critics. It is proving to be a bulwark of democracy in the Middle East. In spite of having no real friends, its enemies are reeling. With its technological superiority, strategic intelligence, and focused force of arms, it has forced the powers that be to take them into account. It will not be bound by the interests of either friends or enemies. Its interests will have to be taken into account in any future that is to be built. Not least in this has been the humbling of Iran which has been so pampered by U.S. policy. Israel is prepared to do the nasty work on bad actors that western powers no longer have the mettle to accomplish.